Can a climate model successfully diagnose clear?air turbulence and its response to climate change?

Abstract: Atmospheric turbulence causes the majority of weather-related aircraft accidents. Climate models project large increases in clear-air as jet streams become more sheared response to climate change. However, have coarser resolutions than numerical weather prediction that are used forecast operationally, raising questions about their suitability for this purpose. Here we provide first rigorous demonstration capable successfully diagnosing and its We use an ensemble seven diagnostics compare 38 years historic diagnosed from model simulations high-resolution reanalysis data. find differences between data much smaller spread diagnostics. When using a calculate probabilities (and temporal trends) encountering any strength, at flight cruising level, season, most uncertainty stems rather model. These results confirm task producing future projections. The generally larger when model, suggesting previous quantifications change may be underestimates. Our show key reducing projections lies improving models.